Duncan Forgan’s research which estimated that there are at least 361 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy and as many as 38,000 was published in The International Journal of Astrobiology. This estimate comes from his simulations based on mathematical probabilities, and recent discoveries of planets with similarities to our own in neighbouring solar systems. (Full BBC article here). There are about 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy, most have planets orbiting them, so there are likely more than 100 billion planets in our galaxy! only a certain amount of course are likely holding life and then only a fraction of those likely host ‘intelligent’ life forms. This is sound maths!

100 billion stars in our galaxy...
The article goes on to say that contact between these civilizations would be near impossible (due to the distance between them). You always hear experts explain that it is unlikely any intelligent aliens could travel the galaxy, this often irritates me because they are (fairly & rightly) basing this assumption on ‘our science’ (which states that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light). ‘Our’ modern science is roughly 250 years old. 100 years ago the Wright brothers flew the firstĀ airplane, today we have space shuttles completing an orbiting space station, that progress was made in 100 years. What kind of progress will humans have made in 1,000 years? How different will our understanding of science be in 10,000 years? The universe is 14 billion years old, there could be an intelligent species out there that flew its first airplane 1,000,000 years ago. It’s fair to say their understanding of science compared to ours would be un-recognizably advanced, its fair I believe to at least factor in the chance that a civilization such as this would have found a way to travel between star systems…